February 7, 2012

Detailed October Ulster County Homes Trend Report

A few readers that enjoyed my analysis of October Ulster County Real Estate data suggested that I do a follow up post that shows trends over an extended period of time.  I compiled the data showing the number of homes sold and the median price for October in Ulster County as far back as I had data.  I also crunched year-to-date comparisons to show trends dating back to 2003–complete with graphs for your viewing pleasure.  Although it took a little time, this effort proved to be very instructive.  See our spectacular graphs and analysis below.

Ulster County Real Estate Statistics Sold Homes

This graph depicts the obvious fact that the month of October 2010 yielded the fewest homes sold in October since the data was tracked in 2002.

Ulster County Real Estate Statistics Sold Homes YTDAlthough the month of October 2010 was not one of the best on the record, the year-to-date statistics demonstrate that more homes have been sold thus far in 2010 than 2009.  I believe that the rise in homes sold in 2010 is due in a large part to the home buyer tax credit that stimulated sales in the area.  It will be interesting to see if the year-to-date figure can surpass that of 2008.  Sales are still far below where they were at the peak of the Ulster County real estate market in 2005.

Ulster County Real Estate Statistics Median Price

The October 2010 median price was at it’s lowest since 2003.  This is certainly good news for buyers who have ample choice and negotiating power.

Ulster County Homes Median Price October 2010 YTD

However for sellers, they have to be disappointed that their equity has declined since 2007.  On a positive note, the median price is once again higher than 2009.

Overall, the data shows that the market certainly is not as active as it was during the peak in the middle of the decade.  However, the figures for both the number of homes sold year-to-date and median price year-to-date demonstrate that there are some positive factors at play that are leading to a slight resurgence in the Ulster County real estate market.

Ulster County Sold Homes Report for October 2010

This month, I’ve chosen to do a more detailed statistical analysis of homes sold in Ulster County, complete with graphs to make it easier to visualize trends.  I’ve pulled data from the Ulster County MLS for residential homes sold in Ulster County and have removed any of the data for reported for sales that took place in neighboring counties.

Ulster County Homes Sold October 2010 This graph shows that the Homebuyer Tax Credit had an unmistakable impact on the local market.  Up until July, more homes were sold each month in 2010 vs. 2009.  Starting in July, the reverse trend was observed–more homes were sold in 2009 vs. 2010 every month.  The tax credit stipulated that all homes had to be in contract by April 30th in order to be eligible for the tax credit.  It typically takes two months for a home to close, so naturally most of these homes would close by approximately June 30th.  We’ve identified here that June to July was the tipping point and that observation runs consistent with the fizzling out of sales after the expiration of the tax credit.

When we compare the number of homes sold year to date (until the end of October 2010), 870 residential homes have sold in 2010 compared to 787 in 2009.  At the moment we’re still ahead of last year’s pace, but it is likely that we’ll continue to see less sales for the remainder of 2010 vs. 2009.

In October 2010, 83 homes sold vs. 114 in 2009.

Ulster County Sold Homes Median Price October 2010There isn’t such a clear month-to-month trend when we look at the median home price.  The year-to-date statistics seem to be a better measure to rely on for median price.  The 2010 year-to-date median price is $211,000 while it was $205,000 in 2009.  The fact that the median price is higher in 2010 is a positive sign that real estate is holding its value despite all of the negative economic factors we’ve been hearing about.

In October 2010, the median price was$205,000 vs. $215,000 in 2009.

I’ll be following the same methodology every month so that all of our readers get the most in-depth analysis of the Ulster County real estate market anywhere.

Rate of Preforeclosure Notices Alarming in Ulster County

The Daily Freeman published an alarming article citing a New York State Banking Department study which concluded that Ulster County has the highest rate of preforeclosure filings per home with a mortgage on it.

Based on Census data is estimated that there are approximately 30,623 residential homes with a mortgage in Ulster County.  From the middle of February 2010 to the end of May 2010, 2,490 preforeclosure notices were filed in Ulster County.  This means that that approximately 8.1% of all mortgaged homes in Ulster County could be in danger of foreclosure.  That is a stunning rate and entails that approximately one in thirteen homeowners (not taking into account owners of multiple residential properties) are at least 90 days behind on their mortgage.

The effects of a slower economy, unemployment and rising property taxes in the area have certainly contributed to difficulties that homeowners are experiencing.

Ulster County Property Taxes Lower Than Other Hudson Valley Counties

Census Data posted by the Tax Foundation revealed that median property tax amount in Ulster County was less than other Hudson Valley counties to the south.  Although Ulster County compared favorably with other Hudson Valley counties on many measures used in the study, it did not compare favorably to other counties around the country.  The study included results from 792 counties throughout the United states.  Ulster County, Dutchess County and Orange County received the following rankings in these property tax measures in the 2009 study (lowest ranking is least desirable):

County Median Annual Property Tax Amount Rank Taxes as % of Home Value Rank Taxes as % of Income Rank
Ulster County $4,129 59 1.68% 136 5.97% 45
Dutchess County $5,118 31 1.65% 142 6.15% 39
Orange County $5,677 21 1.86% 85 6.37 30

Based on this property tax data, Ulster County continues to be a great option for those looking to buy a second home or permanent residence in the Hudson Valley.  In particular, many metro New York and New Jersey residents purchase a home in Ulster County to escape even more challenging property taxes. Property taxes for Ulster County are nearly $1,000 less on average than Dutchess County–which is positioned directly across from Ulster County on the eastern side of the Hudson River.  Home buyers can get more home for their buck and can also enjoy lower property taxes in Ulster County than in Dutchess or Orange County.

However as I examined the full data, it was interesting to note that several counties in the US have very affordable property taxes–even some did not exceed $200.  It certainly is an eye-opener to see that the property taxes comprise around 6% of residents’ total income in the Hudson Valley.

Ulster County Median Home Price Increases

While the number of single family home transactions decreased year over year in September 2010, the median home price in Ulster County (according to data from the Ulster County MLS) increased from $215,000 to $229,500.  The median price last month was almost identical to the August 2010 median price of $230,000.

The lowest priced home which was sold in September 2010 was a $35,000 home in Kingston, while the highest priced home was a $1.1 million home in Woodstock.

The number of homes sold dropped to 86 from 110 in September 2009, but was higher than the August 2010 result of 83 homes sold.

Despite the fact that it has become more difficult to sell homes, there hasn’t been much movement in the median prices of homes that did sell.  There aren’t many places in the country that are showing median price increases from 2009 to 2010, so I see September’s data as a good sign of the stability of the Ulster County real estate market.

Ulster County Home Sales Down in August, Median Price Up

In August 2010, 83 single-family homes were reported as sold in the Ulster County MLS.  In contract, in August 2009, 99 single family homes were sold.  Coincidentally, 83 homes sold in Ulster County in July 2010, so there wasn’t any month to month change–just a year-over-year drop.

The good news for the real estate market was that the median price jumped in August 2010 when compared to August 2009 and July 2010.  The median price was $230,000 for August 2010, $224,000 for July 2010 and $205,000 in August 2009.

Ulster County home sales last month ranged from a $55,000 home in the Town of Rochester to a $1.15 million home in Woodstock.

Village of Ellenville Property Tax Assessments Lead It to Seek Status as City

The Village of Ellenville is at odds with the Town of Wawarsing over assessed values and is seeking to achieve status as a city in order to complete a re-valuation.  As a Village, Ellenville cannot dictate the assessed values of properties contained in its jurisdiction and instead must defer to the Town of Wawarsing.  The Town of Wawarsing has not re-assessed properties in recent memory.

As a result, Ellenville is seeking to become a city in order to control its own destiny.  Village residents are not happy with property taxes that they feel are disproportionate and excessive due to ancient assessed values.

It will be an uphill battle for Ellenville to be granted status as a city since the last city that was incorporated in New York was Rye in 1942.  This is yet another occasion Ulster County where residents have struggled to keep pace with rising property taxes.

Buying Plans for New York Residents Bottom Out

Siena Research Institute has published it’s monthly report on consumer confidence and the results revealed that fewer New Yorkers have plans to purchase a home than last year.  Only 2% of residents polled indicated that they have home buying plans.  The August 2010 2% figure is down 1.5% from 2009.  Furthermore, 2% marks the lowest percentage of those polled since Siena began tracking home buyer intentions.

Recent economic figures and sold homes data point to a slowing Ulster County real estate market the end of this summer.  It is still a great time to purchase a home in Ulster County with record low interest rates, motivated sellers and generous price reductions.

Ulster County Deeds and Mortgages to Be Made Available Online

The Ulster County Clerk is announcing that deeds and mortgages will be made available to be searched and found online beginning September 1st.  Although making these records online is a welcomed advance, the $50/month subscription fee is a bit prohibitive.  Apparently, a one-time access fee will be $5 for those who do not want to subscribe on a monthly basis.

Since these records are public, I’d love to see Ulster County make them available as a service to its citizens in an online format without a fee.  For Realtors who are not so close to Kingston and currently have to travel to the county building, having these important real estate documents available and easily accessible online would save them lot of time and expense.

Homebuilder Confidence Down Nationally

The National Association of Home Builders publishes a monthly report on Homebuilder Confidence that acts as a key real estate market and economic indicator.  Their August report revealed that homebuilder confidence was at an index of 13–which is a decline for the third month in a row.  An index of 50 is the breaking point for positive sentiment, so an idex of 13 is a pretty pessimistic outlook.

So what does this report mean for Ulster County?  Following the national trend, there are certainly less new homes being bought and sold in Ulster County.  However, Ulster County does not have the oversupply of new homes that is symptomatic of over-exuberant building in areas like Florida, Arizona & Las Vegas.  Towns here are relatively conservative in approving subdivisions and require much more due process and due diligence to occur before building can begin.  Larger neighborhoods springing up overnight are certainly not the norm in Ulster.  Green building is a very popular trend in the area that has helped retain interest in new construction homes.  So while this Homebuilder report paints a pessimistic view of new construction homes at the national level, several factors insulate Ulster County from being as dramatically effected by tough national economic conditions.